Surabaya-Rotterdam 40ft went from $2,100 to $4,800 since Dec 2025. Two chokepoints explain it.
Breakdown
- Red Sea (Suez): Houthi reroute via Cape adds 11 days + $1,400 fuel + war premium $600.
- Panama: drought draft limit cuts capacity 40% → US East Coast via Panama +$800 or via Suez shift to compete.
- For SME: garment fob $5/pc → shipping $0.30→$0.68 — margin gone if no clause.
Hedge
1) FOB→CIF switch, lock 3-month forwarder. 2) Consolidate via Patimban (vs Tanjung Priok +$120 but faster). 3) Price clause: shipping >$3,500 triggers buyer split.
Bottom line: Not temporary blip — throughput via Patimban + hedging is permanent fix.