58% of global reserves still USD vs 2.5% CNY — dedollarization is real but slow. For Indonesia, question is invoicing, not ideology.
Reality
- Trade: 78% of ID exports still USD-invoiced (BI 2025). LCS with MY/TH/JP covers 3.8% — growing 40%/yr but base small.
- Why slow: rupiah not fully convertible, hedging shallow, suppliers want USD to pay for oil/shipping.
- Risk if rush: losing 2-3% on FX spread if force rupiah where counterparty has no rupiah account.
What to Do
Hedge 50% USD (BI forward), trial LCS for import from Malaysia/Thailand where rate 1.5-2% cheaper, but keep USD for US/China legs. Don’t bet working capital on dedollarization headline.
Bottom line: Rupiah will regionalize, not replace USD. Prepare for two-currency ops, not one.