Rp 30/kg CO₂ in 2027 — cheap vs EU €90/ton, but first step. For coal power, cost +Rp 45/kWh (~4%); for SME garment, +Rp 2M/month. Not killer — but early movers get cheap JETP loans.
Winners / Losers
- Win: solar rooftop installer, nickel smelter with hydro, ISPO palm (access EU CBAM-exempt).
- Lose: captive coal factory, unregistered palm — pay tax + lose buyer.
SME Prep (12 months)
1) Count Scope 1 (diesel) + Scope 2 (PLN). 2) Switch 20% to panel surya (payback 4.5 yr with BRI green loan 6%). 3) Register on IDX Carbon (SRN) — sell credits Rp 60k/ton from efficiency.
Bottom line: Tax is catalyst if you retrofit now — cost if you wait.